Simultaneous reconstruction of evolutionary history and epidemiological dynamics from viral sequences with the birth-death SIR model

The evolution of RNA viruses such as HIV, Hepatitis C and Influenza virus occurs so rapidly that the viruses' genomes contain information on past ecological dynamics. Hence, we develop a phylodynamic method that enables the joint estimation of epidemiological parameters and phylogenetic history. Based on a compartmental susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, this method provides separate information on incidence and prevalence of infections. Detailed information on the interaction of host population dynamics and evolutionary history can inform decisions on how to contain or entirely avoid disease outbreaks. We apply our Birth-Death SIR method (BDSIR) to two viral data sets. First, five human immunodeficiency virus type 1 clusters sampled in the United Kingdom between 1999 and 2003 are analyzed. The estimated basic reproduction ratios range from 1.9 to 3.2 among the clusters. All clusters show a decline in the growth rate of the local epidemic in the middle or end of the 90's. The analysis of a hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 2c data set shows that the local epidemic in the C\'ordoban city Cruz del Eje originated around 1906 (median), coinciding with an immigration wave from Europe to central Argentina that dates from 1880--1920. The estimated time of epidemic peak is around 1970.Comment: Journal link: http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/11/94/20131106.ful

TreeKnit: Inferring ancestral reassortment graphs of influenza viruses

When two influenza viruses co-infect the same cell, they can exchange genome segments in a process known as reassortment. Reassortment is an important source of genetic diversity and is known to have been involved in the emergence of most pandemic influenza strains. However, because of the difficulty in identifying reassortment events from viral sequence data, little is known about their role in the evolution of the seasonal influenza viruses. Here we introduce TreeKnit, a method that infers ancestral reassortment graphs (ARG) from two segment trees. It is based on topological differences between trees, and proceeds in a greedy fashion by finding regions that are compatible in the two trees. Using simulated genealogies with reassortments, we show that TreeKnit performs well in a wide range of settings and that it is as accurate as a more principled bayesian method, while being orders of magnitude faster. Finally, we show that it is possible to use the inferred ARG to better resolve segment trees and to construct more informative visualizations of reassortments

Efficient Bayesian inference under the structured coalescent

Motivation: Population structure significantly affects evolutionary dynamics. Such structure may be due to spatial segregation, but may also reflect any other gene-flow-limiting aspect of a model. In combination with the structured coalescent, this fact can be used to inform phylogenetic tree reconstruction, as well as to infer parameters such as migration rates and subpopulation sizes from annotated sequence data. However, conducting Bayesian inference under the structured coalescent is impeded by the difficulty of constructing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms (samplers) capable of efficiently exploring the state space. Results: In this article, we present a new MCMC sampler capable of sampling from posterior distributions over structured trees: timed phylogenetic trees in which lineages are associated with the distinct subpopulation in which they lie. The sampler includes a set of MCMC proposal functions that offer significant mixing improvements over a previously published method. Furthermore, its implementation as a BEAST 2 package ensures maximum flexibility with respect to model and prior specification. We demonstrate the usefulness of this new sampler by using it to infer migration rates and effective population sizes of H3N2 influenza between New Zealand, New York and Hong Kong from publicly available hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences under the structured coalescent. Availability and implementation: The sampler has been implemented as a publicly available BEAST 2 package that is distributed under version 3 of the GNU General Public License at http://compevol.github.io/MultiTypeTree. Contact: [email protected] Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics onlin

Taming the BEAST—A Community Teaching Material Resource for BEAST 2

Phylogenetics and phylodynamics are central topics in modern evolutionary biology. Phylogenetic methods reconstruct the evolutionary relationships among organisms, whereas phylodynamic approaches reveal the underlying diversification processes that lead to the observed relationships. These two fields have many practical applications in disciplines as diverse as epidemiology, developmental biology, palaeontology, ecology, and linguistics. The combination of increasingly large genetic data sets and increases in computing power is facilitating the development of more sophisticated phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. Big data sets allow us to answer complex questions. However, since the required analyses are highly specific to the particular data set and question, a black-box method is not sufficient anymore. Instead, biologists are required to be actively involved with modeling decisions during data analysis. The modular design of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2 enables, and in fact enforces, this involvement. At the same time, the modular design enables computational biology groups to develop new methods at a rapid rate. A thorough understanding of the models and algorithms used by inference software is a critical prerequisite for successful hypothesis formulation and assessment. In particular, there is a need for more readily available resources aimed at helping interested scientists equip themselves with the skills to confidently use cutting-edge phylogenetic analysis software. These resources will also benefit researchers who do not have access to similar courses or training at their home institutions. Here, we introduce the “Taming the Beast” (https://taming-the-beast.github.io/) resource, which was developed as part of a workshop series bearing the same name, to facilitate the usage of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2

The On-Orbit Performance of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer

We report the first year on-orbit performance results for the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX), a NASA Small Explorer that is performing a survey of the sky in two ultraviolet bands. The instrument comprises a 50 cm diameter modified Ritchey-Chretien telescope with a 1.25 degree field of view, selectable imaging and objective grism spectroscopic modes, and an innovative optical system with a thin-film multilayer dichroic beam splitter that enables simultaneous imaging by a pair of photon counting, microchannel plate, delay line readout detectors. Initial measurements demonstrate that GALEX is performing well, meeting its requirements for resolution, efficiency, astrometry, bandpass definition and survey sensitivity.Comment: This paper will be published as part of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) Astrophysical Journal Letters Special Issu

Crystal structure of dichlorido(4,11-dimethyl-1,4,8,11-tetraazabicyclo[6.6.2]hexadecane)iron(III) hexafluoridophosphate

The title compound, [FeCl₂(C₁₄H₃₀N₄)]PF₆, contains Fe³⁺ coordinated by the four nitro­gen atoms of an ethyl­ene cross-bridged cyclam macrocycle and two cis chloride ligands in a distorted octa­hedral environment. In contrast to other similar compounds this is a monomer. Inter­molecular C-H...Cl inter­actions exist in the structure between the complex ions. Comparison with the mononuclear Fe²⁺ complex of the same ligand shows that the smaller Fe³⁺ ion is more fully engulfed by the cavity of the bicyclic ligand. Comparison with the μ-oxido dinuclear complex of an unsubstituted ligand of the same size demonstrates that the methyl groups of 4,11-dimethyl-1,4,8,11-tetra­aza­bicyclo­[6.6.2]hexa­decane prevent dimerization upon oxidation

Glycine supplementation extends lifespan of male and female mice.

Diets low in methionine extend lifespan of rodents, though through unknown mechanisms. Glycine can mitigate methionine toxicity, and a small prior study has suggested that supplemental glycine could extend lifespan of Fischer 344 rats. We therefore evaluated the effects of an 8% glycine diet on lifespan and pathology of genetically heterogeneous mice in the context of the Interventions Testing Program. Elevated glycine led to a small (4%-6%) but statistically significant lifespan increase, as well as an increase in maximum lifespan, in both males (p = 0.002) and females (p \u3c 0.001). Pooling across sex, glycine increased lifespan at each of the three independent sites, with significance at p = 0.01, 0.053, and 0.03, respectively. Glycine-supplemented females were lighter than controls, but there was no effect on weight in males. End-of-life necropsies suggested that glycine-treated mice were less likely than controls to die of pulmonary adenocarcinoma (p = 0.03). Of the 40 varieties of incidental pathology evaluated in these mice, none were increased to a significant degree by the glycine-supplemented diet. In parallel analyses of the same cohort, we found no benefits from TM5441 (an inhibitor of PAI-1, the primary inhibitor of tissue and urokinase plasminogen activators), inulin (a source of soluble fiber), or aspirin at either of two doses. Our glycine results strengthen the idea that modulation of dietary amino acid levels can increase healthy lifespan in mice, and provide a foundation for further investigation of dietary effects on aging and late-life diseases

Glycine supplementation extends lifespan of male and female mice.

Diets low in methionine extend lifespan of rodents, though through unknown mechanisms. Glycine can mitigate methionine toxicity, and a small prior study has suggested that supplemental glycine could extend lifespan of Fischer 344 rats. We therefore evaluated the effects of an 8% glycine diet on lifespan and pathology of genetically heterogeneous mice in the context of the Interventions Testing Program. Elevated glycine led to a small (4%-6%) but statistically significant lifespan increase, as well as an increase in maximum lifespan, in both males (p = 0.002) and females (p \u3c 0.001). Pooling across sex, glycine increased lifespan at each of the three independent sites, with significance at p = 0.01, 0.053, and 0.03, respectively. Glycine-supplemented females were lighter than controls, but there was no effect on weight in males. End-of-life necropsies suggested that glycine-treated mice were less likely than controls to die of pulmonary adenocarcinoma (p = 0.03). Of the 40 varieties of incidental pathology evaluated in these mice, none were increased to a significant degree by the glycine-supplemented diet. In parallel analyses of the same cohort, we found no benefits from TM5441 (an inhibitor of PAI-1, the primary inhibitor of tissue and urokinase plasminogen activators), inulin (a source of soluble fiber), or aspirin at either of two doses. Our glycine results strengthen the idea that modulation of dietary amino acid levels can increase healthy lifespan in mice, and provide a foundation for further investigation of dietary effects on aging and late-life diseases

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/